The global spread of the new COVID-19 variant JN.1 is accelerating, and scholars predict it may become the dominant strain.

The JN.1 variant of the COVID-19 virus is rapidly spreading worldwide. Recently, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the United States, for the first time, included JN.1 separately in the near-term forecast for COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 Nowcast), stating that JN.1 is currently the fastest-growing variant in the United States. As of the latest estimate, the CDC estimates that the JN.1 variant accounts for approximately 15% to 29% of circulating variants in the United States. This is a significant increase from the estimate on November 27, where its prevalence was below 1%.

JN.1 is a branch of the Omicron variant BA.2.86. In comparison to the Omicron variant BA.2, which dominated at the beginning of last year, BA.2.86 has over thirty mutations. Compared to XBB.1.5, which has been the globally dominant variant for most of this year, BA.2.86 has over 35 mutations. The CDC suggests that the level of genetic differences is comparable to the differences observed when the Omicron strain first emerged in relation to previously prevalent strains like Delta.

The increased genetic differences initially raised concerns about BA.2.86, and the World Health Organization (WHO) designated it as a “variant under monitoring” (VUM) on August 17 of this year. Subsequently, the CDC publicly stated that BA.2.86 did not evade immunity or spread rapidly, alleviating concerns. However, on November 21, the WHO reclassified BA.2.86 and its branches, including JN.1, as a “variant of interest” (VOI).

Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO’s technical lead for COVID-19, responded to CNN during an interview, stating that the detection of BA.2.86 worldwide is gradually and steadily increasing. Qualifying it as a “variant of interest” helps promote global monitoring of variants and encourages relevant research.